Model thinking

We live in a complex world with a diverse range of people, firms, and governments whose behavior combines to produce new and unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and an endless array of social trends. How can we make sense of it all? Models. Evidence shows that people who think using models consistently outperform those who don’t. What’s more, people who think using many models outperform those who think using just one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us better organize information—make sense of the “firehose” or “tangle” of data (pick your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our ability to make accurate predictions. They help us make better decisions and develop more effective strategies. They can even improve our ability to design institutions and policies. In this lesson, I present a starter set of models: I start with the tipping point models. Next, I consider models that explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help us understand the strategic decisions of firms and politicians. The models in this course serve as the foundation for future social science classes, whether it's economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge head start in advanced courses. It will also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I'll give a short, easy-to-digest overview lecture. Then I'll dive in. I'll dive into the technical details of the model. These technical lectures won't require any calculus, but be prepared to do a little algebra. I'll have questions for all of the lectures, quizzes, and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, take all of the quizzes, and pass the exam, you'll get a Certificate of Completion. If you just want to take the introductory lectures to get your bearings, that's fine, too. All of this is free. And all of this is to help you become a better thinker!